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Meeting	ACGS Committee Meeting 109 - Salt Lake City - March 2012
Agenda Location	6 SUBCOMMITTEE E – FLIGHT, PROPULSION, AND AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE CONTROL SYSTEMS 6.3 UAS Target Level of Safety for 3rd Parties
Title	UAS Target Level of Safety for 3rd Parties
Presenter	Roland Cochran
Affiliation	NAVAIR
Available Downloads*	presentation
	Downloads are available to members who are logged in and either Active* or attended this meeting.
Abstract	Target Level of Safety to 3rd Parties on the Ground Roland Cochran, David Burke, John Ball, Natasha Bradley, Don Polakovics Naval Air Systems Command Patuxent River MD This presentation addresses development of a methodology to determine the risk of a fatality to uninvolved 3rd parties on the ground as a result of operation of an Unmanned Air System (UAS). Currently the operation of UAS is limited to test ranges, combat zones and areas of very low population due to the risk of the crash of a UAS causing a fatality on the ground. The objective of this work is to develop a methodology that will provide a means to determine overall risk of a fatality resulting from the crash of a UAS. By knowing the risk and being able to compare it to historical manned data the area of the National Airspace in which UAS are allowed to fly could be increased. Significant work in casualty expectation, risk, reliability, and crash analysis has been done by DOD, Government agencies and Universities. The authors’ goal is to review previous work and to select promising methods to incorporate into the TLS Methodology. Based on literature review it was determined that Target level of Safety would be made up of 3 components: Probability of Loss of Life (PLOL), Probability of Loss of Aircraft (PLOA) and Probability of a fatality given a loss of aircraft. Probability of loss of life can be determined from historical data and factors used in aircraft design and test. Probability of loss of aircraft can be determined by a number of methods, the authors have selected a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) to evaluate reliability of the components of a UAS required for flight. The third part of the equation involves calculating the potential area in which a UAS could crash given known flight conditions and aircraft properties. Within this area of possible crashes a smaller lethal crash area is determined based on aircraft size, payload and trajectory on impact. In addition effects of fire and explosion as well as shelter factor resulting from buildings is evaluated. Finally Global Information Software (GIS) is used to relate this area to the population density under the flight path to determine the probability of a fatality. This presentation will provide an overview of the historical data for PLOL, calculation process for PLOA based on RBDs and the models and calculations used to determine crash area and the lethal crash area.