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Meeting	ACGS Committee Meeting 96 - Hilton Head - October 2005
Agenda Location	6 SUBCOMMITTEE D - DYNAMICS, COMPUTATIONS 6.3 Emerging Trends in Air Transportation
Title	Emerging Trends in Air Transportation
Presenter	Lance Sherry
Affiliation	George Mason University
Available Downloads*	presentation
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Abstract	The U.S. domestic Air Transportation System (ATS) has exhibited dramatic growth over the last century in terms of capacity (e.g. Available Seat Miles, routes, and airports) and productivity (e.g. airfares, traffic flow). Questions about the sustainability of this growth have been raised due to several phenomenon: (i) the continuing financial woes of airlines, (ii) increasing subsidies of service to non-metropolitan cities, (iii) congestion that leads to increasing delays and cancellations at major airports and airways, (iv) excessive noise and emissions, (v) financial woes of the Airport & Airway Trust Fund, and (vi) wave of 7000 Air Traffic Controllers eligible for retirement in the next few years. This paper examines the cause-and-effect of these phenomena from the perspective of the industry as a “system.” A dynamical system model of the air transportation system was constructed and utilized to examine the dynamics and stability of the industry. The model identifies the absence of stable closed-loop control systems to manage the fluctuations between: (1) passenger/cargo demand on airline service capacity, (2) airline scheduled flight demand on airspace & airport capacity, and (3) airspace & airport demand on air traffic control. Without the implementation of closed-loop control mechanisms (e.g. market-based, regulatory) this system will continue to operate away from equilibrium and create inefficiencies in responding to fluctuations in demand and the introduction on innovations. Recommendations for changes to the system and opportunities for research by the guidance and control community are discussed.