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Meeting	ACGS Committee Meeting 113 - Englewood, Colorado - March 2014
Agenda Location	5 SUBCOMMITTEE A – AERONAUTIC AND SURFACE VEHICLES 5.1 Aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) Event Analysis for Technology Development and Validation
Title	Aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) Event Analysis for Technology Development and Validation
Presenter	Christine Belcastro
Affiliation	NASA Langley Research Center
Available Downloads*	presentation
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Abstract	Christine M. Belcastro (Presenter) NASA Langley Research Center Hampton, Virginia, 23681 Loren Groff National Transportation Safety Board Washington D.C., 20594 Richard L. Newman Crew Systems Seattle, Washington, 98165 John V. Foster NASA Langley Research Center Hampton, Virginia, 23681 Dennis A. Crider National Transportation Safety Board Washington D.C., 20594 David H. Klyde Systems Technology, Inc. Hawthorne, CA, 902504 A. McCall Huston Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, MA 02139 Abstract Aircraft loss of control (LOC) is a leading cause of fatal accidents across all transport airplane and operational classes, and can result from a wide spectrum of hazards, often occurring in combination. Technologies developed for LOC prevention and recovery must therefore be effective under a wide variety of conditions and uncertainties, including multiple hazards, and their validation must provide a means of assessing system effectiveness and coverage of these hazards. This requires the definition of a comprehensive set of LOC test scenarios based on accident and incident data as well as future risks. This paper defines a comprehensive set of accidents and incidents (i.e., LOC events) over a recent 15 year period, and presents preliminary analysis results to identify worst-case combinations of causal and contributing factors (i.e., accident precursors) and how they sequence in time. Such analyses can provide insight in developing effective solutions for LOC, and form the basis for developing test scenarios that can be used in evaluating them. Preliminary findings based on the results of this paper indicate that system failures or malfunctions, crew actions or inactions, vehicle impairment conditions, and vehicle upsets were the largest contributors to accidents and fatalities, followed by inclement weather or atmospheric disturbances and poor visibility. Ongoing research includes finalizing the analysis through a team consensus process, defining future risks, and developing a comprehensive set of test scenarios that are based on and correlated to the LOC event analysis and future risks. Since enhanced engineering simulations are required for batch and piloted evaluations under realistic LOC precursor conditions, these test scenarios can also serve as a high-level requirement for defining the engineering simulation enhancements needed for generating them.